But I'm hesitant. The upside is a potential initial seed round into my business. The downside is... wasted time?
In terms of cost/benefit, it seems pretty straight forward. But I get the general impression that applying without knowing someone or being an advantaged class means it will be a complete waste of time to bother applying.
These threads come up from time to time, and I see the smattering of responses, "totally worth it" and "not worth it at all". I also see the kinds of companies that get funded and they aren't typically the focused, practical, cashflow positive in short order sorts of companies.
I'm torn.
Because if you answer to that is "No", then you should not apply, no matter who you are. YC plays a very specific game. It is not the best game if your goal is to build a company. It is the game to play if you want a high-risk, high-reward experience where a small handful of people get rich, while most other people do not.
Some people want to play that game. If you are one of them, apply. I have no idea if the odds favor you or not, but I guarantee you will not get accepted if you don't apply.
At the same time, if you choose not to apply, or do not get in, don't worry about it. Many people have no interest in that path, and lead quite fulfilling lives being completely outsiders to all of it.
Not only that, but rest assured that while YC is pretty good at what it does, it still has a very high false negative rate, and plenty of companies that it passes on will go on to succeed. See https://www.bvp.com/about#anti-portfolio for a VC that talks about the companies it passed on. My favorite:
> Incredibly, Bessemer passed on Federal Express seven times.
Cashflow positive is fundamentally at odds with VC money in general, for most businesses. The VC model fundamentally requires your startup to be a huge success in a short amount of time. Usually that means throwing money at hiring people and at other growth hacks, in the name of growing as fast as possible. If you want to start a practical, cashflow positive business, SBA loans are for exactly that.
And based on experience, almost all early stage VCs give heavy benefit to insiders or credentials, including YC.